![]() And finally, while almost 200 election deniers were on the ballot last week, those who won tended to be incumbent members of Congress who had voted against certifying some of the 2020 election results, rather than newcomers who aligned themselves with Trump’s stolen election narrative. We saw large splits between Senate and gubernatorial candidates of the same party, including four states (so far!) that elected candidates of different parties to those two positions. First, abortion played a big role in races up and down the ballot, from ballot measures to state legislative races to gubernatorial elections. There will be much more analysis of this election to come - and you can explore our in-the-moment analysis by scrolling down below - but we’ve already noticed a couple things. With the Senate and governors races (mostly) settled, and only about a dozen House races still unprojected, we’ve shuttered this page and switched to our uncalled races live blog. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.Hey readers, thanks for following along with FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm elections live blog. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov.We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted. (TL DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State.has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.) In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. ![]() ![]() ![]() Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. ![]() The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance) Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. Our 2020 forecasts - presidential, Senate, House - are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. ![]()
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